DETERMINISTIC BLACKJACK DECISION ENGINE RESEARCH
CODE VERSION: Deterministic Blackjack Phase 3.100
CODE BUILD TAG: DBDE-3.100-RELEASED-SESSION-PAIRED-DECOMPOSITION

PHASE 3.100 — SELECTIVE-GATE RELEASED-SESSION PAIRED CAUSAL DECOMPOSITION

DESIGN
No new intervention. No threshold tuning. Identify sessions stopped by unconditional TRAIL160/25 but released by the frozen £140 selective gate. Pair identical deterministic sessions across Reference, Unconditional, and Selective policies.

PRIMARY
Sessions released by £140 gate: 111 (2.22% of all sessions)
Released-session selective outcomes:
  Reached £200: 90.99%
  Exhausted £0: 0.00%
  Finished below £100: 0.00%
Selective final vs unconditional retained bankroll:
  Higher: 95.50%
  Lower: 0.90%
  Same: 3.60%
Average final bankroll — Reference / Unconditional / Selective: £206.757 / £155.811 / £206.757
Average selective-minus-unconditional final delta: £+50.946
Average extra wager reintroduced by release: £79.865
Average extra maximum drawdown from release: £+1.351
Mutually exclusive release outcomes:
  RELEASED_HIGHER_FINAL: 5 (4.50%)
  RELEASED_LOWER_FINAL: 1 (0.90%)
  RELEASED_SAME_FINAL: 4 (3.60%)
  RELEASED_TO_200: 101 (90.99%)

HOLDOUT
Sessions released by £140 gate: 100 (2.00% of all sessions)
Released-session selective outcomes:
  Reached £200: 88.00%
  Exhausted £0: 0.00%
  Finished below £100: 0.00%
Selective final vs unconditional retained bankroll:
  Higher: 93.00%
  Lower: 2.00%
  Same: 5.00%
Average final bankroll — Reference / Unconditional / Selective: £207.313 / £154.363 / £207.313
Average selective-minus-unconditional final delta: £+52.950
Average extra wager reintroduced by release: £80.000
Average extra maximum drawdown from release: £+1.200
Mutually exclusive release outcomes:
  RELEASED_HIGHER_FINAL: 5 (5.00%)
  RELEASED_LOWER_FINAL: 2 (2.00%)
  RELEASED_SAME_FINAL: 5 (5.00%)
  RELEASED_TO_200: 88 (88.00%)

INTERPRETATION GUARDRAIL
This phase decomposes the causal price and benefit of releasing stronger trigger states. It does not search for a better gate. A released session reaching £200 is an upper-target benefit; a lower final bankroll, extra exposure, or extra drawdown is a measurable cost. Both must remain visible.
