DETERMINISTIC BLACKJACK DECISION ENGINE RESEARCH
CODE VERSION: Deterministic Blackjack Phase 3.164
CODE BUILD TAG: DBDE-3.164-FINAL-INDEPENDENT-HOLDOUT-BRANCH-CLOSURE

PHASE 3.164 — FINAL INDEPENDENT HOLDOUT / BRANCH-CLOSURE TEST
Fresh cohorts BA/BB/BC/BD; 5,000 sessions each; +5 checkpoint.
Frozen four-arm contract and boundary instrumentation. No tuning.

CONTINUE_REFERENCE
mean final £84.484 | median £62.500 | £200 21.69% | £0 39.35% | positive 41.34% | final<£70 51.38%
mean exposure £371.334 | mean maxDD £86.070 | mean hands 18.974 | activation 0 (0.00%)
checkpoint observed 3669 (18.35%) | observable CAPITAL_RISK 1470 (7.35%)

ORIGINAL_CAPITAL_RISK_FREEZE
mean final £85.057 | median £70.000 | £200 21.13% | £0 37.22% | positive 39.59% | final<£70 49.85%
mean exposure £357.230 | mean maxDD £83.528 | mean hands 18.236 | activation 1470 (7.35%)
checkpoint observed 3669 (18.35%) | observable CAPITAL_RISK 1470 (7.35%)

REFINED_60
mean final £84.606 | median £60.000 | £200 21.64% | £0 38.38% | positive 41.12% | final<£70 51.82%
mean exposure £368.309 | mean maxDD £85.531 | mean hands 18.804 | activation 419 (2.10%)
checkpoint observed 3669 (18.35%) | observable CAPITAL_RISK 1470 (7.35%)

REFINED_70
mean final £84.646 | median £62.500 | £200 21.59% | £0 38.12% | positive 40.92% | final<£70 52.00%
mean exposure £366.556 | mean maxDD £85.222 | mean hands 18.710 | activation 598 (2.99%)
checkpoint observed 3669 (18.35%) | observable CAPITAL_RISK 1470 (7.35%)

PAIRED VS CONTINUE_REFERENCE — ORIGINAL_CAPITAL_RISK_FREEZE
better 860 (4.30%) | worse 514 (2.57%) | equal 18626 (93.13%)
aggregate HELP £+42020.00 | HARM £-30570.00 | NET £+11450.00
£0 prevented/created 427/0 | £200 lost/created 113/0 | severe<£70 prevented/created 450/143
mean exposure delta £-14.105 | mean maxDD delta £-2.542

PAIRED VS CONTINUE_REFERENCE — REFINED_60
better 270 (1.35%) | worse 118 (0.59%) | equal 19612 (98.06%)
aggregate HELP £+9468.75 | HARM £-7042.50 | NET £+2426.25
£0 prevented/created 194/0 | £200 lost/created 11/0 | severe<£70 prevented/created 0/87
mean exposure delta £-3.026 | mean maxDD delta £-0.539

PAIRED VS CONTINUE_REFERENCE — REFINED_70
better 363 (1.82%) | worse 191 (0.96%) | equal 19446 (97.23%)
aggregate HELP £+14330.00 | HARM £-11105.00 | NET £+3225.00
£0 prevented/created 247/0 | £200 lost/created 20/0 | severe<£70 prevented/created 20/143
mean exposure delta £-4.778 | mean maxDD delta £-0.848

PREDECLARED HOLDOUT TESTS
Primary activation ordering ORIGINAL > £70 > £60: PASS
Primary £0-prevention ordering ORIGINAL > £70 > £60: PASS
Primary £200-loss ordering ORIGINAL > £70 > £60: PASS
Secondary <=£60 vs £80-100: PZ 46.30% vs 17.08% | LOST200 2.63% vs 12.81% | PASS
TOTAL PREDECLARED HOLDOUT TESTS PASSED: 4 / 4

SHA-256: b131e1ac2ff5287b9e9440b6ee5fed1b94a86603cbcee742445ce0aa7683238a
