
================ AUTOMATIC SHUFFLE ROBUSTNESS | SESSION 20260912_175237 ================
ENGINE VERSION: integrated-post-session-v3 | paired_replays_per_method 5000 | seed_base 202609050001
Captured-card reservoir: 169 cards
Comparable-action definition: same replay hand, branch, decision ordinal, player-rank state and dealer upcard in both independently consumed paths.
A | Observed-card permutation: shuffle only the captured session-card reservoir; no cards added.
  Frozen median 80.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 98.62 | Casual mean 96.64
  £200 reach Frozen 29.26% | Casual 20.42% | Mean exposure Frozen 446.44 | Casual 413.36 | Mean maxDD Frozen 91.74 | Casual 83.95
  30-hand completion Frozen 3187 | Casual 3410 | Both 3000
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 6.96
  Comparable action decisions total: 138338 | Different actions total: 5268 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.0536
B | Full six-deck RNG: generate and uniformly shuffle a fresh 312-card six-deck shoe.
  Frozen median 80.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 99.52 | Casual mean 96.91
  £200 reach Frozen 30.12% | Casual 20.12% | Mean exposure Frozen 450.70 | Casual 413.83 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.90 | Casual 83.79
  30-hand completion Frozen 3348 | Casual 3519 | Both 3150
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 7.58
  Comparable action decisions total: 137976 | Different actions total: 5740 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1480
C1 | Penetration 50%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 50%.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 85.00 | Frozen mean 98.19 | Casual mean 96.53
  £200 reach Frozen 29.40% | Casual 21.12% | Mean exposure Frozen 447.79 | Casual 412.71 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.61 | Casual 84.19
  30-hand completion Frozen 3191 | Casual 3414 | Both 2988
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 6.67
  Comparable action decisions total: 136935 | Different actions total: 5323 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.0646
C2 | Penetration 65%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 65%.
  Frozen median 80.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 98.20 | Casual mean 96.32
  £200 reach Frozen 29.54% | Casual 21.12% | Mean exposure Frozen 446.74 | Casual 412.13 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.90 | Casual 84.46
  30-hand completion Frozen 3173 | Casual 3425 | Both 2958
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 7.71
  Comparable action decisions total: 136836 | Different actions total: 5332 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.0664
C3 | Penetration 75%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 75%.
  Frozen median 82.50 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 98.16 | Casual mean 96.05
  £200 reach Frozen 29.42% | Casual 20.60% | Mean exposure Frozen 450.48 | Casual 413.38 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.10 | Casual 83.87
  30-hand completion Frozen 3235 | Casual 3441 | Both 3033
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 5.60
  Comparable action decisions total: 138276 | Different actions total: 5386 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.0772
C4 | Penetration 80%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 80%.
  Frozen median 82.50 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 99.05 | Casual mean 96.03
  £200 reach Frozen 28.82% | Casual 19.02% | Mean exposure Frozen 451.45 | Casual 416.21 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.25 | Casual 84.23
  30-hand completion Frozen 3254 | Casual 3440 | Both 3023
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 7.74
  Comparable action decisions total: 137993 | Different actions total: 5384 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.0768
D | Physical-style proxy: captured reservoir with deterministic riffle/strip/cut-style mixing.
  Frozen median 82.50 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 100.46 | Casual mean 99.69
  £200 reach Frozen 30.66% | Casual 21.66% | Mean exposure Frozen 450.73 | Casual 416.00 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.08 | Casual 83.00
  30-hand completion Frozen 3210 | Casual 3442 | Both 2995
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 5.24
  Comparable action decisions total: 138706 | Different actions total: 5561 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1122
E | Automatic/continuous proxy: captured reservoir; after each complete hand, used cards return and the full reservoir is remixed.
  Frozen median 82.50 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 99.89 | Casual mean 98.57
  £200 reach Frozen 29.90% | Casual 21.36% | Mean exposure Frozen 451.92 | Casual 417.77 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.29 | Casual 83.64
  30-hand completion Frozen 3369 | Casual 3575 | Both 3276
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 6.33
  Comparable action decisions total: 162072 | Different actions total: 6238 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.2476
Method E boundary: after each COMPLETE hand, consumed cards return to the captured reservoir and the entire reservoir is remixed; no captured card is added, removed or substituted.
Method D boundary: declared mathematical riffle/strip/cut proxy; not a proprietary casino-shuffler reproduction.

================ HYBRID FORMAL-START COUNTERFACTUAL | SESSION 20260912_175237 ================
PURPOSE: replay the unchanged Frozen and fixed Casual policies from the same formal-session starting captured cardstream. The observed Hybrid journey remains separate and authoritative for what was actually played.
Captured formal chronology available: 169 exact rank+suit cards. Each policy consumes independently; no card or settlement is invented.
Frozen from formal start: outcome N/A | hands 26 | W/L/P 13/12/1 | exposure £500.00 | cards consumed 159 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE | last source-supported bankroll £102.50
Casual from formal start: outcome N/A | hands 27 | W/L/P 14/12/1 | exposure £480.00 | cards consumed 159 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE | last source-supported bankroll £137.50
Publication rule: if a replay is NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE, its outcome is N/A; the displayed bankroll is only the last source-supported bankroll. Do not present it as a completed journey.
================ END HYBRID FORMAL-START COUNTERFACTUAL | SESSION 20260912_175237 ================

================ STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260912_175237 ================
EXPERIMENT STATUS: EXPLORATORY COUNTERFACTUAL / DETERMINISTIC / QUARANTINED FROM FROZEN-vs-CASUAL SCORECARD
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
VISIBLE-EVIDENCE RULE: wager and exit decisions use only completed prior-hand evidence visible to the player; no future cards, shoe composition, or unrevealed dealer hole card is consulted. A hole-card hunch may affect a current play decision only after the dealer up-card is visible and only from previously revealed hole-card history.
POLICY: ordinary wager £15; rare evidence-triggered 2x/3x/4x presses; rolling last-five-hand table impression; deterministic walk-away rule from Hand 8 onward. Existing Casual and Frozen policies are unchanged.
STAY POLICY: the stay-at-table counterfactual keeps the SAME Stat-Watching Casual personality, wager logic, hunch logic and play policy; only the behavioural walk-away trigger is disabled. It never switches to Frozen style.
Chosen behavioural path: hands 14 | bankroll £167.50 | W/L/P 9/4/1 | exposure £300.00 | termination BEHAVIOURAL_EXIT | chosen exit Hand 14 at £167.50
Stay-at-table counterfactual: hands 30 | bankroll £145.00 | W/L/P 16/13/1 | exposure £540.00 | termination COMPLETED | SOURCE-COMPLETE
Exit value versus staying: +£22.50
PATH_CHOSEN: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=130.00;H3=160.00;H4=190.00;H5=130.00;H6=130.00;H7=152.50;H8=167.50;H9=182.50;H10=167.50;H11=152.50;H12=167.50;H13=182.50;H14=167.50
PATH_STAY: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=130.00;H3=160.00;H4=190.00;H5=130.00;H6=130.00;H7=152.50;H8=167.50;H9=182.50;H10=167.50;H11=152.50;H12=167.50;H13=182.50;H14=167.50;H15=152.50;H16=167.50;H17=182.50;H18=167.50;H19=190.00;H20=205.00;H21=190.00;H22=175.00;H23=190.00;H24=175.00;H25=160.00;H26=145.00;H27=160.00;H28=145.00;H29=160.00;H30=145.00
INFLUENCE | H5 | WAGER | 2x wager (£30.00) • last 4 hands: low cards 46%, 10-value cards 29%, W/L 4/0
INFLUENCE | H13 | HUNCH | stood on hard 13 vs 10 after prior revealed hole cards behind this up-card averaged 4.0
INFLUENCE | H14 | EXIT | walked away at £167.50 • last 5 hands: low cards 52%, 10-value cards 30%, W/L 2/3 • drawdown from peak £22.50
Publication boundary: exploratory side experiment only. Do not award established Frozen/Casual scorecard percentiles or alter the main comparison from this block without a later declared research phase.
================ END STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260912_175237 ================

================ ULTIMATE AI | SESSION 20260912_175237 ================
AI POLICY: ULTIMATE-AI-V1-FROZEN-WEIGHTED-GATE | deterministic | Frozen baseline | repository through Session 9
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
TEMPORAL BOUNDARY: only repository evidence through Session 9 plus evidence visible before each current decision was available. Session 10 completed outcomes were not in the repository during this replay.
V1 GATE: Frozen wins weak evidence and ties. Action/wager overrides require convergent predeclared support; scorecard/percentile similarity has zero live-decision weight until a predecision-safe mapping exists.
Ultimate AI: hands 15 | bankroll N/A | last source-supported £182.50 | P/L N/A | W/L/P 9/5/1 | exposure £345.00 | termination AI_EXIT | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
Frozen same-basis comparator: hands 26 | bankroll N/A | P/L N/A | exposure £500.00 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
OVERRIDES: action 0 | wager 1 | exit 1
PATH_AI: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=130.00;H3=160.00;H4=190.00;H5=130.00;H6=130.00;H7=152.50;H8=167.50;H9=197.50;H10=182.50;H11=167.50;H12=197.50;H13=212.50;H14=197.50;H15=182.50
AI_OVERRIDE | H5 WAGER | Frozen £15.00 -> AI £30.00 | support 4
AI_OVERRIDE | H15 EXIT | bankroll £182.50 | trend -1 | drawdown £30.00
Publication boundary: experimental synthesis controller. Descriptive deterministic comparison only; no claim of casino advantage, card prediction or guaranteed profitability.
================ END ULTIMATE AI | SESSION 20260912_175237 ================
SHUFFLE_ANALYSIS_STATUS | session 20260912_175237 | COMPLETE
================ END AUTOMATIC SHUFFLE ROBUSTNESS | SESSION 20260912_175237 ================
