
================ AUTOMATIC SHUFFLE ROBUSTNESS | SESSION 20260910_204102 ================
ENGINE VERSION: integrated-post-session-v3 | paired_replays_per_method 5000 | seed_base 202609050001
Captured-card reservoir: 163 cards
Comparable-action definition: same replay hand, branch, decision ordinal, player-rank state and dealer upcard in both independently consumed paths.
A | Observed-card permutation: shuffle only the captured session-card reservoir; no cards added.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 97.37 | Casual mean 95.92
  £200 reach Frozen 29.74% | Casual 20.22% | Mean exposure Frozen 438.45 | Casual 404.03 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.78 | Casual 83.79
  30-hand completion Frozen 556 | Casual 754 | Both 475
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 3.59
  Comparable action decisions total: 134606 | Different actions total: 5927 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1854
B | Full six-deck RNG: generate and uniformly shuffle a fresh 312-card six-deck shoe.
  Frozen median 80.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 99.52 | Casual mean 96.91
  £200 reach Frozen 30.12% | Casual 20.12% | Mean exposure Frozen 450.70 | Casual 413.83 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.90 | Casual 83.79
  30-hand completion Frozen 3348 | Casual 3519 | Both 3150
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 7.58
  Comparable action decisions total: 137976 | Different actions total: 5740 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1480
C1 | Penetration 50%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 50%.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 85.00 | Frozen mean 96.50 | Casual mean 95.48
  £200 reach Frozen 28.44% | Casual 19.90% | Mean exposure Frozen 438.82 | Casual 405.09 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.73 | Casual 83.25
  30-hand completion Frozen 578 | Casual 757 | Both 478
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 4.06
  Comparable action decisions total: 133141 | Different actions total: 5907 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1814
C2 | Penetration 65%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 65%.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 85.00 | Frozen mean 95.81 | Casual mean 94.67
  £200 reach Frozen 28.76% | Casual 19.36% | Mean exposure Frozen 434.91 | Casual 401.50 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.94 | Casual 83.82
  30-hand completion Frozen 563 | Casual 789 | Both 480
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 9.09
  Comparable action decisions total: 132327 | Different actions total: 5876 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1752
C3 | Penetration 75%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 75%.
  Frozen median 75.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 95.31 | Casual mean 95.01
  £200 reach Frozen 28.18% | Casual 20.02% | Mean exposure Frozen 434.91 | Casual 403.68 | Mean maxDD Frozen 93.01 | Casual 84.13
  30-hand completion Frozen 546 | Casual 788 | Both 467
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 2.62
  Comparable action decisions total: 132109 | Different actions total: 5968 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1936
C4 | Penetration 80%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 80%.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 85.00 | Frozen mean 95.90 | Casual mean 94.40
  £200 reach Frozen 28.22% | Casual 19.46% | Mean exposure Frozen 433.66 | Casual 401.08 | Mean maxDD Frozen 91.97 | Casual 83.74
  30-hand completion Frozen 523 | Casual 758 | Both 455
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 0.60
  Comparable action decisions total: 133626 | Different actions total: 5859 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1718
D | Physical-style proxy: captured reservoir with deterministic riffle/strip/cut-style mixing.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 85.00 | Frozen mean 95.45 | Casual mean 94.22
  £200 reach Frozen 27.92% | Casual 19.62% | Mean exposure Frozen 433.23 | Casual 401.98 | Mean maxDD Frozen 93.26 | Casual 84.38
  30-hand completion Frozen 583 | Casual 801 | Both 502
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 3.18
  Comparable action decisions total: 132524 | Different actions total: 5939 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1878
E | Automatic/continuous proxy: captured reservoir; after each complete hand, used cards return and the full reservoir is remixed.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 85.00 | Frozen mean 97.80 | Casual mean 96.19
  £200 reach Frozen 29.88% | Casual 21.08% | Mean exposure Frozen 449.35 | Casual 414.11 | Mean maxDD Frozen 93.62 | Casual 84.69
  30-hand completion Frozen 3229 | Casual 3461 | Both 3103
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 8.03
  Comparable action decisions total: 166369 | Different actions total: 7421 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.4842
Method E boundary: after each COMPLETE hand, consumed cards return to the captured reservoir and the entire reservoir is remixed; no captured card is added, removed or substituted.
Method D boundary: declared mathematical riffle/strip/cut proxy; not a proprietary casino-shuffler reproduction.

================ HYBRID FORMAL-START COUNTERFACTUAL | SESSION 20260910_204102 ================
PURPOSE: replay the unchanged Frozen and fixed Casual policies from the same formal-session starting captured cardstream. The observed Hybrid journey remains separate and authoritative for what was actually played.
Captured formal chronology available: 163 exact rank+suit cards. Each policy consumes independently; no card or settlement is invented.
Frozen from formal start: outcome N/A | hands 28 | W/L/P 14/13/1 | exposure £510.00 | cards consumed 158 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE | last source-supported bankroll £197.50
Casual from formal start: outcome N/A | hands 28 | W/L/P 14/13/1 | exposure £495.00 | cards consumed 158 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE | last source-supported bankroll £175.00
Publication rule: if a replay is NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE, its outcome is N/A; the displayed bankroll is only the last source-supported bankroll. Do not present it as a completed journey.
================ END HYBRID FORMAL-START COUNTERFACTUAL | SESSION 20260910_204102 ================

================ STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260910_204102 ================
EXPERIMENT STATUS: EXPLORATORY COUNTERFACTUAL / DETERMINISTIC / QUARANTINED FROM FROZEN-vs-CASUAL SCORECARD
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
VISIBLE-EVIDENCE RULE: wager and exit decisions use only completed prior-hand evidence visible to the player; no future cards, shoe composition, or unrevealed dealer hole card is consulted. A hole-card hunch may affect a current play decision only after the dealer up-card is visible and only from previously revealed hole-card history.
POLICY: ordinary wager £15; rare evidence-triggered 2x/3x/4x presses; rolling last-five-hand table impression; deterministic walk-away rule from Hand 8 onward. Existing Casual and Frozen policies are unchanged.
STAY POLICY: the stay-at-table counterfactual keeps the SAME Stat-Watching Casual personality, wager logic, hunch logic and play policy; only the behavioural walk-away trigger is disabled. It never switches to Frozen style.
Chosen behavioural path: hands 10 | bankroll £77.50 | W/L/P 4/6/0 | exposure £180.00 | termination BEHAVIOURAL_EXIT | chosen exit Hand 10 at £77.50
Stay-at-table counterfactual: hands 28 | bankroll £175.00 | W/L/P 14/13/1 | exposure £495.00 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
Exit value versus staying: N/A unless a behavioural exit occurs and the stay-at-table replay is source-complete.
PATH_CHOSEN: H0=100.00;H1=85.00;H2=70.00;H3=100.00;H4=122.50;H5=107.50;H6=122.50;H7=92.50;H8=107.50;H9=92.50;H10=77.50
PATH_STAY: H0=100.00;H1=85.00;H2=70.00;H3=100.00;H4=122.50;H5=107.50;H6=122.50;H7=92.50;H8=107.50;H9=92.50;H10=77.50;H11=92.50;H12=77.50;H13=92.50;H14=77.50;H15=92.50;H16=107.50;H17=92.50;H18=77.50;H19=62.50;H20=92.50;H21=107.50;H22=92.50;H23=92.50;H24=77.50;H25=92.50;H26=122.50;H27=152.50;H28=175.00
INFLUENCE | H10 | EXIT | walked away at £77.50 • last 5 hands: low cards 48%, 10-value cards 26%, W/L 2/3 • drawdown from peak £45.00
Publication boundary: exploratory side experiment only. Do not award established Frozen/Casual scorecard percentiles or alter the main comparison from this block without a later declared research phase.
================ END STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260910_204102 ================

================ ULTIMATE AI | SESSION 20260910_204102 ================
AI POLICY: ULTIMATE-AI-V1-FROZEN-WEIGHTED-GATE | deterministic | Frozen baseline | repository through Session 8
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
TEMPORAL BOUNDARY: only repository evidence through Session 8 plus evidence visible before each current decision was available. Session 9 completed outcomes were not in the repository during this replay.
V1 GATE: Frozen wins weak evidence and ties. Action/wager overrides require convergent predeclared support; scorecard/percentile similarity has zero live-decision weight until a predecision-safe mapping exists.
Ultimate AI: hands 19 | bankroll N/A | last source-supported £62.50 | P/L N/A | W/L/P 8/11/0 | exposure £315.00 | termination AI_EXIT | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
Frozen same-basis comparator: hands 28 | bankroll N/A | P/L N/A | exposure £510.00 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
OVERRIDES: action 0 | wager 0 | exit 1
PATH_AI: H0=100.00;H1=85.00;H2=70.00;H3=100.00;H4=122.50;H5=107.50;H6=122.50;H7=92.50;H8=107.50;H9=92.50;H10=77.50;H11=92.50;H12=77.50;H13=92.50;H14=77.50;H15=92.50;H16=107.50;H17=92.50;H18=77.50;H19=62.50
AI_OVERRIDE | H19 EXIT | bankroll £62.50 | trend -2 | drawdown £60.00
Publication boundary: experimental synthesis controller. Descriptive deterministic comparison only; no claim of casino advantage, card prediction or guaranteed profitability.
================ END ULTIMATE AI | SESSION 20260910_204102 ================
SHUFFLE_ANALYSIS_STATUS | session 20260910_204102 | COMPLETE
================ END AUTOMATIC SHUFFLE ROBUSTNESS | SESSION 20260910_204102 ================
