
================ AUTOMATIC SHUFFLE ROBUSTNESS | SESSION 20260913_031649 ================
ENGINE VERSION: integrated-post-session-v3 | paired_replays_per_method 5000 | seed_base 202609050001
Captured-card reservoir: 164 cards
Comparable-action definition: same replay hand, branch, decision ordinal, player-rank state and dealer upcard in both independently consumed paths.
A | Observed-card permutation: shuffle only the captured session-card reservoir; no cards added.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 85.00 | Frozen mean 96.02 | Casual mean 94.45
  £200 reach Frozen 28.54% | Casual 19.14% | Mean exposure Frozen 436.39 | Casual 404.11 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.52 | Casual 84.11
  30-hand completion Frozen 1339 | Casual 1627 | Both 1168
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 6.88
  Comparable action decisions total: 134586 | Different actions total: 5743 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1486
B | Full six-deck RNG: generate and uniformly shuffle a fresh 312-card six-deck shoe.
  Frozen median 80.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 99.52 | Casual mean 96.91
  £200 reach Frozen 30.12% | Casual 20.12% | Mean exposure Frozen 450.70 | Casual 413.83 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.90 | Casual 83.79
  30-hand completion Frozen 3348 | Casual 3519 | Both 3150
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 7.58
  Comparable action decisions total: 137976 | Different actions total: 5740 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1480
C1 | Penetration 50%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 50%.
  Frozen median 80.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 98.34 | Casual mean 95.92
  £200 reach Frozen 29.50% | Casual 20.10% | Mean exposure Frozen 440.84 | Casual 408.33 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.05 | Casual 83.77
  30-hand completion Frozen 1358 | Casual 1727 | Both 1206
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 5.03
  Comparable action decisions total: 134943 | Different actions total: 5945 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1890
C2 | Penetration 65%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 65%.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 85.00 | Frozen mean 95.40 | Casual mean 93.80
  £200 reach Frozen 28.18% | Casual 19.46% | Mean exposure Frozen 440.84 | Casual 405.64 | Mean maxDD Frozen 93.29 | Casual 84.24
  30-hand completion Frozen 1399 | Casual 1738 | Both 1236
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 5.35
  Comparable action decisions total: 135172 | Different actions total: 5871 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1742
C3 | Penetration 75%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 75%.
  Frozen median 80.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 95.91 | Casual mean 95.02
  £200 reach Frozen 28.88% | Casual 19.78% | Mean exposure Frozen 437.55 | Casual 405.32 | Mean maxDD Frozen 93.10 | Casual 84.56
  30-hand completion Frozen 1328 | Casual 1675 | Both 1181
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 4.62
  Comparable action decisions total: 136383 | Different actions total: 5741 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1482
C4 | Penetration 80%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 80%.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 85.00 | Frozen mean 93.41 | Casual mean 92.97
  £200 reach Frozen 26.86% | Casual 18.20% | Mean exposure Frozen 439.37 | Casual 407.46 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.97 | Casual 84.22
  30-hand completion Frozen 1321 | Casual 1697 | Both 1175
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 5.99
  Comparable action decisions total: 137595 | Different actions total: 5775 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1550
D | Physical-style proxy: captured reservoir with deterministic riffle/strip/cut-style mixing.
  Frozen median 77.50 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 97.53 | Casual mean 96.06
  £200 reach Frozen 29.26% | Casual 19.72% | Mean exposure Frozen 439.25 | Casual 405.32 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.70 | Casual 83.50
  30-hand completion Frozen 1325 | Casual 1629 | Both 1177
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 4.35
  Comparable action decisions total: 136466 | Different actions total: 5830 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1660
E | Automatic/continuous proxy: captured reservoir; after each complete hand, used cards return and the full reservoir is remixed.
  Frozen median 80.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 96.67 | Casual mean 95.75
  £200 reach Frozen 29.84% | Casual 20.12% | Mean exposure Frozen 450.21 | Casual 415.20 | Mean maxDD Frozen 93.88 | Casual 84.54
  30-hand completion Frozen 3269 | Casual 3495 | Both 3154
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 6.58
  Comparable action decisions total: 164073 | Different actions total: 6934 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.3868
Method E boundary: after each COMPLETE hand, consumed cards return to the captured reservoir and the entire reservoir is remixed; no captured card is added, removed or substituted.
Method D boundary: declared mathematical riffle/strip/cut proxy; not a proprietary casino-shuffler reproduction.

================ HYBRID FORMAL-START COUNTERFACTUAL | SESSION 20260913_031649 ================
PURPOSE: replay the unchanged Frozen and fixed Casual policies from the same formal-session starting captured cardstream. The observed Hybrid journey remains separate and authoritative for what was actually played.
Captured formal chronology available: 164 blackjack-replayable cards (rank known; any U suit remains unresolved). Each policy consumes independently; no card rank or settlement is invented.
Frozen from formal start: outcome N/A | hands 27 | W/L/P 21/5/1 | exposure £475.00 | cards consumed 158 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE | last source-supported bankroll £372.50
Frozen synthetic-reference profile | RISK 22.259 | JOURNEY 53.077 | Survival 70.679 | Path Exposure 64.974 | Recovery Activity 23.579 | inputs: maxDD £30.00 | giveback £15.00 | cumulative wager £475.00 | absolute movement £452.50 | recovery episodes 0 | successful 0 | recovery ratio 0.000000 | table_exit 0
Casual from formal start: outcome N/A | hands 27 | W/L/P 22/4/1 | exposure £420.00 | cards consumed 158 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE | last source-supported bankroll £392.50
Casual synthetic-reference profile | RISK 17.011 | JOURNEY 50.885 | Survival 70.679 | Path Exposure 58.397 | Recovery Activity 23.579 | inputs: maxDD £15.00 | giveback £0.00 | cumulative wager £420.00 | absolute movement £412.50 | recovery episodes 0 | successful 0 | recovery ratio 0.000000 | table_exit 0
Publication rule: if a replay is NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE, its outcome is N/A; the displayed bankroll is only the last source-supported bankroll. Risk/Journey remain synthetic-reference profile outputs for the source-supported path, not completed-outcome claims.
================ END HYBRID FORMAL-START COUNTERFACTUAL | SESSION 20260913_031649 ================

================ STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260913_031649 ================
EXPERIMENT STATUS: EXPLORATORY COUNTERFACTUAL / DETERMINISTIC / QUARANTINED FROM FROZEN-vs-CASUAL SCORECARD
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
VISIBLE-EVIDENCE RULE: wager and exit decisions use only completed prior-hand evidence visible to the player; no future cards, shoe composition, or unrevealed dealer hole card is consulted. A hole-card hunch may affect a current play decision only after the dealer up-card is visible and only from previously revealed hole-card history.
POLICY: ordinary wager £15; rare evidence-triggered 2x/3x/4x presses; rolling last-five-hand table impression; deterministic walk-away rule from Hand 8 onward. Existing Casual and Frozen policies are unchanged.
STAY POLICY: the stay-at-table counterfactual keeps the SAME Stat-Watching Casual personality, wager logic, hunch logic and play policy; only the behavioural walk-away trigger is disabled. It never switches to Frozen style.
Chosen behavioural path: hands 27 | bankroll £377.50 | W/L/P 22/4/1 | exposure £450.00 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED
Stay-at-table counterfactual: hands 27 | bankroll £377.50 | W/L/P 22/4/1 | exposure £450.00 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
Exit value versus staying: N/A unless a behavioural exit occurs and the stay-at-table replay is source-complete.
PATH_CHOSEN: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=130.00;H3=115.00;H4=130.00;H5=145.00;H6=160.00;H7=175.00;H8=160.00;H9=190.00;H10=205.00;H11=190.00;H12=205.00;H13=205.00;H14=220.00;H15=235.00;H16=250.00;H17=220.00;H18=235.00;H19=250.00;H20=265.00;H21=280.00;H22=302.50;H23=317.50;H24=332.50;H25=347.50;H26=362.50;H27=377.50
PATH_STAY: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=130.00;H3=115.00;H4=130.00;H5=145.00;H6=160.00;H7=175.00;H8=160.00;H9=190.00;H10=205.00;H11=190.00;H12=205.00;H13=205.00;H14=220.00;H15=235.00;H16=250.00;H17=220.00;H18=235.00;H19=250.00;H20=265.00;H21=280.00;H22=302.50;H23=317.50;H24=332.50;H25=347.50;H26=362.50;H27=377.50
INFLUENCE | H13 | WAGER | 2x wager (£30.00) • last 5 hands: low cards 46%, 10-value cards 18%, W/L 3/2
INFLUENCE | H17 | WAGER | 2x wager (£30.00) • last 5 hands: low cards 52%, 10-value cards 19%, W/L 4/0
Publication boundary: exploratory side experiment only. Do not award established Frozen/Casual scorecard percentiles or alter the main comparison from this block without a later declared research phase.
================ END STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260913_031649 ================

================ ULTIMATE AI | SESSION 20260913_031649 ================
AI POLICY: ULTIMATE-AI-V1-FROZEN-WEIGHTED-GATE | deterministic | Frozen baseline | repository through Session 10
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
TEMPORAL BOUNDARY: only repository evidence through Session 10 plus evidence visible before each current decision was available. Session 11 completed outcomes were not in the repository during this replay.
V1 GATE: Frozen wins weak evidence and ties. Action/wager overrides require convergent predeclared support; scorecard/percentile similarity has zero live-decision weight until a predecision-safe mapping exists.
Ultimate AI: hands 27 | bankroll N/A | last source-supported £402.50 | P/L N/A | W/L/P 21/5/1 | exposure £550.00 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
Frozen same-basis comparator: hands 27 | bankroll N/A | P/L N/A | exposure £475.00 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
OVERRIDES: action 0 | wager 4 | exit 0
PATH_AI: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=130.00;H3=100.00;H4=115.00;H5=130.00;H6=145.00;H7=160.00;H8=145.00;H9=185.00;H10=200.00;H11=185.00;H12=200.00;H13=200.00;H14=260.00;H15=290.00;H16=305.00;H17=275.00;H18=290.00;H19=305.00;H20=320.00;H21=335.00;H22=357.50;H23=372.50;H24=387.50;H25=402.50;H26=417.50;H27=402.50
AI_OVERRIDE | H13 WAGER | Frozen £15.00 -> AI £30.00 | support 4
AI_OVERRIDE | H14 WAGER | Frozen £15.00 -> AI £30.00 | support 4
AI_OVERRIDE | H15 WAGER | Frozen £15.00 -> AI £30.00 | support 4
AI_OVERRIDE | H17 WAGER | Frozen £15.00 -> AI £30.00 | support 4
Publication boundary: experimental synthesis controller. Descriptive deterministic comparison only; no claim of casino advantage, card prediction or guaranteed profitability.
================ END ULTIMATE AI | SESSION 20260913_031649 ================
SHUFFLE_ANALYSIS_STATUS | session 20260913_031649 | COMPLETE
================ END AUTOMATIC SHUFFLE ROBUSTNESS | SESSION 20260913_031649 ================
