
================ AUTOMATIC SHUFFLE ROBUSTNESS | SESSION 20260917_183148 ================
ENGINE VERSION: integrated-post-session-v3 | paired_replays_per_method 5000 | seed_base 202609050001
Captured-card reservoir: 79 cards
HNL_SAME_STATE_CORPUS | blackjack_hnl_same_state_corpus_20260917_183148.tsv | states 550 | A/B/C1/C2/C3/C4/D/E | Frozen + Casual individual paths | pair IDs provenance only
Comparable-action definition: same replay hand, branch, decision ordinal, player-rank state and dealer upcard in both independently consumed paths.
A | Observed-card permutation: shuffle only the captured session-card reservoir; no cards added.
  Frozen median 95.00 | Casual median 100.00 | Frozen mean 101.13 | Casual mean 99.62
  £200 reach Frozen 14.58% | Casual 7.76% | Mean exposure Frozen 236.85 | Casual 219.89 | Mean maxDD Frozen 63.04 | Casual 57.97
  30-hand completion Frozen 0 | Casual 0 | Both 0
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): N/A
  Comparable action decisions total: 81245 | Different actions total: 3055 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 0.6110
B | Full six-deck RNG: generate and uniformly shuffle a fresh 312-card six-deck shoe.
  Frozen median 80.00 | Casual median 92.50 | Frozen mean 99.52 | Casual mean 96.91
  £200 reach Frozen 30.12% | Casual 20.12% | Mean exposure Frozen 450.70 | Casual 413.83 | Mean maxDD Frozen 92.90 | Casual 83.79
  30-hand completion Frozen 3348 | Casual 3519 | Both 3150
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 7.58
  Comparable action decisions total: 137976 | Different actions total: 5740 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1480
C1 | Penetration 50%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 50%.
  Frozen median 100.00 | Casual median 100.00 | Frozen mean 103.27 | Casual mean 101.91
  £200 reach Frozen 15.46% | Casual 7.86% | Mean exposure Frozen 237.14 | Casual 219.57 | Mean maxDD Frozen 62.47 | Casual 57.22
  30-hand completion Frozen 0 | Casual 0 | Both 0
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): N/A
  Comparable action decisions total: 80213 | Different actions total: 3062 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 0.6124
C2 | Penetration 65%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 65%.
  Frozen median 92.50 | Casual median 100.00 | Frozen mean 100.91 | Casual mean 99.11
  £200 reach Frozen 15.50% | Casual 7.60% | Mean exposure Frozen 236.07 | Casual 219.31 | Mean maxDD Frozen 62.60 | Casual 57.82
  30-hand completion Frozen 0 | Casual 0 | Both 0
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): N/A
  Comparable action decisions total: 81079 | Different actions total: 2928 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 0.5856
C3 | Penetration 75%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 75%.
  Frozen median 97.50 | Casual median 100.00 | Frozen mean 103.04 | Casual mean 102.19
  £200 reach Frozen 14.78% | Casual 7.80% | Mean exposure Frozen 236.81 | Casual 219.58 | Mean maxDD Frozen 62.37 | Casual 56.93
  30-hand completion Frozen 0 | Casual 0 | Both 0
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): N/A
  Comparable action decisions total: 80673 | Different actions total: 2964 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 0.5928
C4 | Penetration 80%: captured reservoir; reshuffle only remaining cards between hands at 80%.
  Frozen median 95.00 | Casual median 100.00 | Frozen mean 102.68 | Casual mean 101.48
  £200 reach Frozen 14.68% | Casual 7.20% | Mean exposure Frozen 236.78 | Casual 219.70 | Mean maxDD Frozen 62.50 | Casual 57.36
  30-hand completion Frozen 0 | Casual 0 | Both 0
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): N/A
  Comparable action decisions total: 81029 | Different actions total: 2998 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 0.5996
D | Physical-style proxy: captured reservoir with deterministic riffle/strip/cut-style mixing.
  Frozen median 100.00 | Casual median 100.00 | Frozen mean 104.05 | Casual mean 102.99
  £200 reach Frozen 15.40% | Casual 8.34% | Mean exposure Frozen 238.33 | Casual 220.74 | Mean maxDD Frozen 61.77 | Casual 56.40
  30-hand completion Frozen 0 | Casual 0 | Both 0
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): N/A
  Comparable action decisions total: 81032 | Different actions total: 2909 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 0.5818
E | Automatic/continuous proxy: captured reservoir; after each complete hand, used cards return and the full reservoir is remixed.
  Frozen median 92.50 | Casual median 100.00 | Frozen mean 106.33 | Casual mean 103.47
  £200 reach Frozen 31.78% | Casual 22.70% | Mean exposure Frozen 452.91 | Casual 416.06 | Mean maxDD Frozen 89.43 | Casual 81.44
  30-hand completion Frozen 3519 | Casual 3645 | Both 3418
  Mean paired final-bankroll difference Frozen-Casual (both completed): 6.86
  Comparable action decisions total: 161179 | Different actions total: 5843 | Mean Comparable Action Differences: 1.1686
Method E boundary: after each COMPLETE hand, consumed cards return to the captured reservoir and the entire reservoir is remixed; no captured card is added, removed or substituted.
Method D boundary: declared mathematical riffle/strip/cut proxy; not a proprietary casino-shuffler reproduction.

================ HYBRID FORMAL-START COUNTERFACTUAL | SESSION 20260917_183148 ================
PURPOSE: replay the unchanged Frozen and fixed Casual policies from the same formal-session starting captured cardstream. The observed Hybrid journey remains separate and authoritative for what was actually played.
Captured formal chronology available: 79 blackjack-replayable cards (rank known; any U suit remains unresolved). Each policy consumes independently; no card rank or settlement is invented.
Frozen from formal start: outcome N/A | hands 14 | W/L/P 6/8/0 | exposure £240.00 | cards consumed 79 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE | last source-supported bankroll £40.00
Frozen synthetic-reference profile | RISK 60.358 | JOURNEY 38.175 | Survival 53.711 | Path Exposure 33.102 | Recovery Activity 27.711 | inputs: maxDD £105.00 | giveback £90.00 | cumulative wager £240.00 | absolute movement £240.00 | recovery episodes 1 | successful 0 | recovery ratio 0.000000 | table_exit 0
Casual from formal start: outcome N/A | hands 14 | W/L/P 6/8/0 | exposure £225.00 | cards consumed 79 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE | last source-supported bankroll £55.00
Casual synthetic-reference profile | RISK 56.951 | JOURNEY 37.529 | Survival 53.711 | Path Exposure 31.165 | Recovery Activity 27.711 | inputs: maxDD £105.00 | giveback £75.00 | cumulative wager £225.00 | absolute movement £225.00 | recovery episodes 1 | successful 0 | recovery ratio 0.000000 | table_exit 0
Publication rule: if a replay is NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE, its outcome is N/A; the displayed bankroll is only the last source-supported bankroll. Risk/Journey remain synthetic-reference profile outputs for the source-supported path, not completed-outcome claims.
================ END HYBRID FORMAL-START COUNTERFACTUAL | SESSION 20260917_183148 ================

================ STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260917_183148 ================
EXPERIMENT STATUS: EXPLORATORY COUNTERFACTUAL / DETERMINISTIC / QUARANTINED FROM FROZEN-vs-CASUAL SCORECARD
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
VISIBLE-EVIDENCE RULE: wager and exit decisions use only completed prior-hand evidence visible to the player; no future cards, shoe composition, or unrevealed dealer hole card is consulted. A hole-card hunch may affect a current play decision only after the dealer up-card is visible and only from previously revealed hole-card history.
POLICY: ordinary wager £15; rare evidence-triggered 2x/3x/4x presses; rolling last-five-hand table impression; deterministic walk-away rule from Hand 8 onward. Existing Casual and Frozen policies are unchanged.
STAY POLICY: the stay-at-table counterfactual keeps the SAME Stat-Watching Casual personality, wager logic, hunch logic and play policy; only the behavioural walk-away trigger is disabled. It never switches to Frozen style.
Chosen behavioural path: hands 8 | bankroll £55.00 | W/L/P 3/5/0 | exposure £135.00 | termination BEHAVIOURAL_EXIT | chosen exit Hand 8 at £55.00
Stay-at-table counterfactual: hands 14 | bankroll £55.00 | W/L/P 6/8/0 | exposure £225.00 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
Exit value versus staying: N/A unless a behavioural exit occurs and the stay-at-table replay is source-complete.
PATH_CHOSEN: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=130.00;H3=115.00;H4=85.00;H5=70.00;H6=55.00;H7=70.00;H8=55.00
PATH_STAY: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=130.00;H3=115.00;H4=85.00;H5=70.00;H6=55.00;H7=70.00;H8=55.00;H9=40.00;H10=25.00;H11=40.00;H12=55.00;H13=70.00;H14=55.00
INFLUENCE | H8 | EXIT | walked away at £55.00 • last 5 hands: low cards 29%, 10-value cards 32%, W/L 1/4 • drawdown from peak £75.00
Publication boundary: exploratory side experiment only. Do not award established Frozen/Casual scorecard percentiles or alter the main comparison from this block without a later declared research phase.
================ END STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260917_183148 ================

================ ULTIMATE AI | SESSION 20260917_183148 ================
AI POLICY: ULTIMATE-AI-V1-FROZEN-WEIGHTED-GATE | deterministic | Frozen baseline | repository through Session 12
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
TEMPORAL BOUNDARY: only repository evidence through Session 12 plus evidence visible before each current decision was available. Session 13 completed outcomes were not in the repository during this replay.
V1 GATE: Frozen wins weak evidence and ties. Action/wager overrides require convergent predeclared support; scorecard/percentile similarity has zero live-decision weight until a predecision-safe mapping exists.
Ultimate AI: hands 10 | bankroll £25.00 | P/L £-75.00 | W/L/P 3/7/0 | exposure £165.00 | termination AI_EXIT | SOURCE-COMPLETE
Frozen same-basis comparator: hands 14 | bankroll N/A | P/L N/A | exposure £240.00 | termination SOURCE_EXHAUSTED | NOT SOURCE-COMPLETE
OVERRIDES: action 0 | wager 0 | exit 1
PATH_AI: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=130.00;H3=115.00;H4=85.00;H5=70.00;H6=55.00;H7=70.00;H8=55.00;H9=40.00;H10=25.00
AI_OVERRIDE | H10 EXIT | bankroll £25.00 | trend -2 | drawdown £105.00
Publication boundary: experimental synthesis controller. Descriptive deterministic comparison only; no claim of casino advantage, card prediction or guaranteed profitability.
================ END ULTIMATE AI | SESSION 20260917_183148 ================
SHUFFLE_ANALYSIS_STATUS | session 20260917_183148 | COMPLETE
================ END AUTOMATIC SHUFFLE ROBUSTNESS | SESSION 20260917_183148 ================
