
================ STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260903_221223 ================
EXPERIMENT STATUS: EXPLORATORY COUNTERFACTUAL / DETERMINISTIC / QUARANTINED FROM FROZEN-vs-CASUAL SCORECARD
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
VISIBLE-EVIDENCE RULE: wager and exit decisions use only completed prior-hand evidence visible to the player; no future cards, shoe composition, or unrevealed dealer hole card is consulted. A hole-card hunch may affect a current play decision only after the dealer up-card is visible and only from previously revealed hole-card history.
POLICY: ordinary wager £15; rare evidence-triggered 2x/3x/4x presses; rolling last-five-hand table impression; deterministic walk-away rule from Hand 8 onward. Existing Casual and Frozen policies are unchanged.
STAY POLICY: the stay-at-table counterfactual keeps the SAME Stat-Watching Casual personality, wager logic, hunch logic and play policy; only the behavioural walk-away trigger is disabled. It never switches to Frozen style.
Chosen behavioural path: hands 10 | bankroll £130.00 | W/L/P 5/5/0 | exposure £180.00 | termination BEHAVIOURAL_EXIT | chosen exit Hand 10 at £130.00
Stay-at-table counterfactual: hands 30 | bankroll £122.50 | W/L/P 14/14/2 | exposure £525.00 | termination COMPLETED | SOURCE-COMPLETE
Exit value versus staying: +£7.50
PATH_CHOSEN: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=145.00;H3=130.00;H4=160.00;H5=175.00;H6=160.00;H7=175.00;H8=160.00;H9=145.00;H10=130.00
PATH_STAY: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=145.00;H3=130.00;H4=160.00;H5=175.00;H6=160.00;H7=175.00;H8=160.00;H9=145.00;H10=130.00;H11=115.00;H12=115.00;H13=115.00;H14=130.00;H15=145.00;H16=130.00;H17=145.00;H18=130.00;H19=145.00;H20=160.00;H21=145.00;H22=160.00;H23=175.00;H24=197.50;H25=182.50;H26=167.50;H27=137.50;H28=167.50;H29=152.50;H30=122.50
INFLUENCE | H10 | EXIT | walked away at £130.00 • last 5 hands: low cards 45%, 10-value cards 29%, W/L 1/4 • drawdown from peak £45.00
Publication boundary: exploratory side experiment only. Do not award established Frozen/Casual scorecard percentiles or alter the main comparison from this block without a later declared research phase.
================ END STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260903_221223 ================
