
================ STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260905_174453 ================
EXPERIMENT STATUS: EXPLORATORY COUNTERFACTUAL / DETERMINISTIC / QUARANTINED FROM FROZEN-vs-CASUAL SCORECARD
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
VISIBLE-EVIDENCE RULE: wager and exit decisions use only completed prior-hand evidence visible to the player; no future cards, shoe composition, or unrevealed dealer hole card is consulted. A hole-card hunch may affect a current play decision only after the dealer up-card is visible and only from previously revealed hole-card history.
POLICY: ordinary wager £15; rare evidence-triggered 2x/3x/4x presses; rolling last-five-hand table impression; deterministic walk-away rule from Hand 8 onward. Existing Casual and Frozen policies are unchanged.
STAY POLICY: the stay-at-table counterfactual keeps the SAME Stat-Watching Casual personality, wager logic, hunch logic and play policy; only the behavioural walk-away trigger is disabled. It never switches to Frozen style.
Chosen behavioural path: hands 8 | bankroll £167.50 | W/L/P 6/2/0 | exposure £120.00 | termination BEHAVIOURAL_EXIT | chosen exit Hand 8 at £167.50
Stay-at-table counterfactual: hands 30 | bankroll £265.00 | W/L/P 18/9/3 | exposure £465.00 | termination COMPLETED | SOURCE-COMPLETE
Exit value versus staying: £-97.50
PATH_CHOSEN: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=100.00;H3=115.00;H4=100.00;H5=115.00;H6=130.00;H7=152.50;H8=167.50
PATH_STAY: H0=100.00;H1=115.00;H2=100.00;H3=115.00;H4=100.00;H5=115.00;H6=130.00;H7=152.50;H8=167.50;H9=182.50;H10=197.50;H11=182.50;H12=182.50;H13=197.50;H14=212.50;H15=197.50;H16=212.50;H17=197.50;H18=182.50;H19=197.50;H20=212.50;H21=242.50;H22=227.50;H23=242.50;H24=242.50;H25=257.50;H26=242.50;H27=242.50;H28=257.50;H29=242.50;H30=265.00
INFLUENCE | H8 | EXIT | walked away at £167.50 • last 5 hands: low cards 42%, 10-value cards 42%, W/L 4/1 • drawdown from peak £0.00
Publication boundary: exploratory side experiment only. Do not award established Frozen/Casual scorecard percentiles or alter the main comparison from this block without a later declared research phase.
================ END STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260905_174453 ================
