
================ STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260906_163019 ================
EXPERIMENT STATUS: EXPLORATORY COUNTERFACTUAL / DETERMINISTIC / QUARANTINED FROM FROZEN-vs-CASUAL SCORECARD
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
VISIBLE-EVIDENCE RULE: wager and exit decisions use only completed prior-hand evidence visible to the player; no future cards, shoe composition, or unrevealed dealer hole card is consulted. A hole-card hunch may affect a current play decision only after the dealer up-card is visible and only from previously revealed hole-card history.
POLICY: ordinary wager £15; rare evidence-triggered 2x/3x/4x presses; rolling last-five-hand table impression; deterministic walk-away rule from Hand 8 onward. Existing Casual and Frozen policies are unchanged.
STAY POLICY: the stay-at-table counterfactual keeps the SAME Stat-Watching Casual personality, wager logic, hunch logic and play policy; only the behavioural walk-away trigger is disabled. It never switches to Frozen style.
Chosen behavioural path: hands 10 | bankroll £10.00 | W/L/P 1/6/3 | exposure £165.00 | termination BEHAVIOURAL_EXIT | chosen exit Hand 10 at £10.00
Stay-at-table counterfactual: hands 10 | bankroll £10.00 | W/L/P 1/6/3 | exposure £165.00 | termination BANKROLL | SOURCE-COMPLETE
Exit value versus staying: +£0.00
PATH_CHOSEN: H0=100.00;H1=100.00;H2=85.00;H3=70.00;H4=70.00;H5=40.00;H6=55.00;H7=40.00;H8=40.00;H9=25.00;H10=10.00
PATH_STAY: H0=100.00;H1=100.00;H2=85.00;H3=70.00;H4=70.00;H5=40.00;H6=55.00;H7=40.00;H8=40.00;H9=25.00;H10=10.00
INFLUENCE | H5 | WAGER | 2x wager (£30.00) • last 4 hands: low cards 48%, 10-value cards 16%, W/L 0/2
INFLUENCE | H10 | EXIT | walked away at £10.00 • last 5 hands: low cards 40%, 10-value cards 36%, W/L 1/3 • drawdown from peak £90.00
Publication boundary: exploratory side experiment only. Do not award established Frozen/Casual scorecard percentiles or alter the main comparison from this block without a later declared research phase.
================ END STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260906_163019 ================
