
================ STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260906_195138 ================
EXPERIMENT STATUS: EXPLORATORY COUNTERFACTUAL / DETERMINISTIC / QUARANTINED FROM FROZEN-vs-CASUAL SCORECARD
REPLAY BASIS: FORMAL_START
VISIBLE-EVIDENCE RULE: wager and exit decisions use only completed prior-hand evidence visible to the player; no future cards, shoe composition, or unrevealed dealer hole card is consulted. A hole-card hunch may affect a current play decision only after the dealer up-card is visible and only from previously revealed hole-card history.
POLICY: ordinary wager £15; rare evidence-triggered 2x/3x/4x presses; rolling last-five-hand table impression; deterministic walk-away rule from Hand 8 onward. Existing Casual and Frozen policies are unchanged.
STAY POLICY: the stay-at-table counterfactual keeps the SAME Stat-Watching Casual personality, wager logic, hunch logic and play policy; only the behavioural walk-away trigger is disabled. It never switches to Frozen style.
Chosen behavioural path: hands 11 | bankroll £92.50 | W/L/P 5/6/0 | exposure £195.00 | termination BEHAVIOURAL_EXIT | chosen exit Hand 11 at £92.50
Stay-at-table counterfactual: hands 30 | bankroll £62.50 | W/L/P 12/16/2 | exposure £480.00 | termination COMPLETED | SOURCE-COMPLETE
Exit value versus staying: +£30.00
PATH_CHOSEN: H0=100.00;H1=85.00;H2=100.00;H3=130.00;H4=152.50;H5=137.50;H6=122.50;H7=107.50;H8=122.50;H9=137.50;H10=122.50;H11=92.50
PATH_STAY: H0=100.00;H1=85.00;H2=100.00;H3=130.00;H4=152.50;H5=137.50;H6=122.50;H7=107.50;H8=122.50;H9=137.50;H10=122.50;H11=92.50;H12=77.50;H13=92.50;H14=77.50;H15=62.50;H16=47.50;H17=47.50;H18=32.50;H19=47.50;H20=32.50;H21=55.00;H22=70.00;H23=55.00;H24=40.00;H25=62.50;H26=77.50;H27=62.50;H28=47.50;H29=47.50;H30=62.50
INFLUENCE | H11 | EXIT | walked away at £92.50 • last 5 hands: low cards 31%, 10-value cards 31%, W/L 2/3 • drawdown from peak £60.00
Publication boundary: exploratory side experiment only. Do not award established Frozen/Casual scorecard percentiles or alter the main comparison from this block without a later declared research phase.
================ END STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260906_195138 ================
