
================ STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260908_021956 ================
EXPERIMENT STATUS: EXPLORATORY COUNTERFACTUAL / DETERMINISTIC / QUARANTINED FROM FROZEN-vs-CASUAL SCORECARD
REPLAY BASIS: PREAMBLE_START
PREAMBLE CONTEXT: source session_evidence\blackjack_preamble_20260908_020157.txt | preamble hands 13 | preamble cards 80 | observed preamble shuffles 1 | starts from first recorded preamble card, matching the established preamble-start comparison basis.
VISIBLE-EVIDENCE RULE: wager and exit decisions use only completed prior-hand evidence visible to the player; no future cards, shoe composition, or unrevealed dealer hole card is consulted. A hole-card hunch may affect a current play decision only after the dealer up-card is visible and only from previously revealed hole-card history.
POLICY: ordinary wager £15; rare evidence-triggered 2x/3x/4x presses; rolling last-five-hand table impression; deterministic walk-away rule from Hand 8 onward. Existing Casual and Frozen policies are unchanged.
STAY POLICY: the stay-at-table counterfactual keeps the SAME Stat-Watching Casual personality, wager logic, hunch logic and play policy; only the behavioural walk-away trigger is disabled. It never switches to Frozen style.
Chosen behavioural path: hands 15 | bankroll £40.00 | W/L/P 7/8/0 | exposure £285.00 | termination BEHAVIOURAL_EXIT | chosen exit Hand 15 at £40.00
Stay-at-table counterfactual: hands 17 | bankroll £10.00 | W/L/P 7/10/0 | exposure £315.00 | termination BANKROLL | SOURCE-COMPLETE
Exit value versus staying: +£30.00
PATH_CHOSEN: H0=100.00;H1=122.50;H2=107.50;H3=122.50;H4=107.50;H5=92.50;H6=107.50;H7=92.50;H8=77.50;H9=92.50;H10=107.50;H11=122.50;H12=62.50;H13=47.50;H14=70.00;H15=40.00
PATH_STAY: H0=100.00;H1=122.50;H2=107.50;H3=122.50;H4=107.50;H5=92.50;H6=107.50;H7=92.50;H8=77.50;H9=92.50;H10=107.50;H11=122.50;H12=62.50;H13=47.50;H14=70.00;H15=40.00;H16=25.00;H17=10.00
INFLUENCE | H8 | HUNCH | stood on hard 12 vs 3 after prior revealed hole cards behind this up-card averaged 3.5
INFLUENCE | H12 | WAGER | 2x wager (£30.00) • last 5 hands: low cards 48%, 10-value cards 19%, W/L 3/2
INFLUENCE | H15 | WAGER | 2x wager (£30.00) • last 5 hands: low cards 43%, 10-value cards 14%, W/L 3/2
INFLUENCE | H15 | HUNCH | stood on hard 15 vs 10 after prior revealed hole cards behind this up-card averaged 3.7
INFLUENCE | H15 | EXIT | walked away at £40.00 • last 5 hands: low cards 42%, 10-value cards 27%, W/L 2/3 • drawdown from peak £82.50
Publication boundary: exploratory side experiment only. Do not award established Frozen/Casual scorecard percentiles or alter the main comparison from this block without a later declared research phase.
================ END STAT-WATCHING CASUAL | SESSION 20260908_021956 ================
